Terrace anticipates a warm-up as El Niño effects set to influence winter weather
After a chilly spell, Terrace is set for above-average temperatures and possible increased rainfall
After a week of below-average temperatures, Terrace is poised for a warm-up in the coming weeks, according to Environment Canada.
Recent days have seen temperatures in Terrace dip four to six degrees Celsius below typical values, with snow even making an early appearance at the Terrace-Kitimat Northwest Regional Airport. On October 23, a centimetre of snow was recorded at the city's airport, followed by a chilly low of -4ºC on October 26.
"We've experienced noticeably cooler temperatures lately," noted Derek Lee, an Environment Canada meteorologist. "This trend should persist for a few more days, especially during the evenings."
However, residents can anticipate a shift in weather by the middle of next week. "There's a warming trend expected around Wednesday, although that also signifies the arrival of an active storm pattern and potential rain," Lee explained.
As November unfolds, above-average temperatures are forecasted for Terrace. While there might be increased rainfall — hinted by current coastal models — predicting precise precipitation levels remains a challenge. "Terrace isn't squarely in the heart of these wetter models, but that could evolve," Lee mentioned.
December will usher in the effects of El Niño for both Terrace and British Columbia at large. "The influence of El Niño on our weather will become more pronounced as winter progresses," said Lee. While this phenomenon promises warmer temperatures, precipitation predictions remain uncertain.
El Niño, characterized by abnormally warm tropical waters near the equator, has been evident in recent months. However, its climatic repercussions in B.C. often have a delay. Lee elaborated, "Although summers along the coast are typically warm, it's during the fall, with incoming Pacific storms and warm ocean waters, that we observe more pronounced El Niño effects."
This El Niño phase is projected to persist until spring 2024, boasting an 80 per cent likelihood of continuing from March to May.
Reflecting on the past nine months, Terrace has endured warmer and drier conditions than usual, bordering on drought conditions since the previous fall. "Terrace has experienced drier conditions for six of the past nine months, with five of those being unusually warm," Lee reported.
Residents may recall a particularly parched and balmy summer, aligning with Lee's observations.
With the festive season approaching, questions arise about the likelihood of a white Christmas. While Lee acknowledges the challenge of pinpointing conditions for a specific day, he highlighted that Terrace's record snowfall for Christmas was in 2006, with 27.8 centimetres.
Comparing 2023 to 1978, a year marked by similar weather anomalies, Lee commented on the resemblances but cautioned that each year is distinct.
Forecasting for Terrace is notoriously challenging, given the constant tug-of-war between warm and cold air fronts, Lee added.